Xi envisions political hegemony over East Asia (and beyond). Russian troops are already massing on the border. A first step would be invading Ukraine, giving Russia an economic boost and consolidating Black Sea strategic access. The coming year could be the key stepping stone for his dreams. He seeks strategic territorial expansion, the destruction of NATO, and eventual political hegemony over Europe. Putin is dedicated to the defense and rise of Russia. And both likely understand that 2022 is the year they must act. Both are men of action, willing to take large, calculated risks. Both are committed nationalists who see themselves as major historical figures. Both have consolidated power within brutal systems. Putin has written extensively on his vision for Russia - for example, his Millennium Papers and his “PhD” dissertation on energy economics. But unfortunately, there are “Black Swan” events - unexpected shocks to the system that totally change the future.Īnd today we confront two Black Swans - Vladimir Putin Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin UK working on 'high impact' sanctions against Russia over Ukraine Putin's one-two punch European strategy to defeat America Russia wants to see progress from security talks within weeks, negotiator says MORE and Xi Jinping. We tend to be optimistic Bayesians: If the sun rose today, certainly it will rise the same way tomorrow. Most Americans will find that forecast surprising and offensive. I’ll start the ball rolling by framing the most gloomy scenario: 2022 could mark the end of the world, via global war and nuclear exchanges. December has arrived and it’s time to forecast 2022.

Act of war direct action